Tracking COVID-19 in the US, from March 2nd to July 3rd, 2020.
3.28 million people filed for unemployment in the last week
We’ll be ahead of China overnight
6.6M more unemployment claims filed last week
6.6 million more people lost their jobs:
Transit ridership down 78% in Chicago
5.2 million workers added to unemployment tally
There’s nowhere to hide,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton in Chicago. “This is the deepest, fastest, most broad-based recession we’ve ever seen.
The status of COVID-19 antivirals and vaccines https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-coronavirus-drug-vaccine-status
4.4 M more unemployment claims in the past week - 26.5M total
We’re quickly approaching 1M cases and 50K deaths in the US:
Rt is a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading.
Illinois is currently measuring R 0.89 - which makes me very happy as a Chicago resident:
More information on Rt can be found at rt.live.
We hit 50K deaths in the US today – a sad milestone.
We broke one million cases in the US today:
When Congress passed legislation mandating paid sick leave during the pandemic, it exempted 80% of American workers (the requirement does not apply to any business with more than 500 employees). Some lawmakers say their top priority in the next relief bill will be a liability shield for companies as states reopen, while others focus on worker protections.
New reported cases by day appear to be trending down while we’re seeing an uptick in reported deaths (given lag time):
3.8 million more unemployment claims in the last week (30.3M in total in the past six weeks):
- How Coronavirus Spreads and Mutates
- The Changing Profile of Covid-19’s Presenting Symptoms
- A Mexican ‘Lucha Libre’ Wrestler Is Sewing Masks To Fight Coronavirus
- City of Juneau, Alaska has started a joke line to cheer people up
1.1M cases in the US:
7-day moving average of new reported cases appears remains consistent:
Illinois continues to grow - though the number of people tested daily continues to grow:
10K Americans reach 65 each day, and many are getting caught in the country’s broken retirement system. Notes:
- Over 30M Americans have applied for unemployment benefits since the pandemic struck - many will lose their jobs permanently and retire earlier than planned.
- 50% of Americans between the ages of 56-61 had less than $21,000 in retirement savings in 2016 - and not much has changed since (source).
- 40% of Americans over the age of 60 who are no longer working full-time rely solely on Social Security for their income — with a median annual benefit of ~$17,000 (source).
1.2M cases in the US (0.3% of the population), 72K dead:
- Bloomberg’s state reopening tracker
- The Ugly Truth - A whistleblower report released Tuesday documents corruption and dysfunction inside the Department of Health and Human Services
- US shelves detailed CDC guide to reopening
Some positive Illinois trends:
We also had our highest number of tests in 24-hours:
Today is a new high for cases (4,104) but also a new high for tests (29,266) says IDPH Director Dr. Ngozi Ezike.
Where people started leaving home again - a look at movement patterns using cellphone data:
On first glance, I thought this was an article on relocation trends – something I’m following as the pandemic continues to change how we all live.
There has been a total of 36.5M claims since the pandemic started – or 23.4% of the estimated workforce (155.7M in 2018).
Currently at 1.4M cases and 85K deaths in the US:
Thankfully, the number of new cases has continued to trend down:
Approaching 1.5M cases and 90K deaths in the US:
A look at trends in Illinois:
2,088 new cases were reported yesterday.
A look at Chicago cases - the NYT notes the city’s status as
Currently at 3.49 new cases per 1,000 people (or 1 in 286).
“Your daily commute won’t ever be the same” - a good article from National Geographic
1.5M cases and 90K deaths:
We’re seeing some week-over-week day of week improvements in Illinois:
A Congressional oversight committee released a report on the CARES Act’s s $500 Billion Emergency Economic Stabilization Funds. Highlights:
- More than one quarter of the U.S. economy has been idled — a fall in output equivalent to what occurred between 1929 and 1933 during the Great Depression.
- Over the eight weeks ending on May 9, 36.5 million Americans filed unemployment claims. When combined with the 7.1 million Americans already unemployed as of March 13, the total equals more than 40 million. Between people who are unemployed and underemployed, some experts estimate that the real unemployment rate is actually 22.8% or as high as 25%.
- A Federal Reserve survey found that among people who were working in February, almost 40% of those in households making less than $40,000 a year had lost a job in March.
- Of the $500 billion allocated, the Treasury Department has dispersed $37.5 billion to the Federal Reserve.
- German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron agreed to support a 500 billion-euro ($546 billion) aid package to help the European Union recover.
- Covid Patients Testing Positive After Recovery Aren’t Infectious, Study Shows (phew)
- Notre Dame announces its plans for reopening, including testing, contact tracing and mandatory mask wearing.
All 50 states have begun to reopen to some degree - many states require masks and for folks to social distance when gathering.
A prototype vaccine has protected monkeys from the virus. Small numbers (8 monkeys), but a great development nonetheless.
CDC releases guidance for reopening. A 60-page document that is similar to the draft version that was shelved by the White House, but with toned down guidance and section on ‘communities of faith’ removed.
A look at US aggregate trends:
New cases slowly declining.
Zooming in on Illinois, we are thankfully seeing a sharp decline in new cases:
Mayors, public health experts and other officials worry that the risk of new coronavirus cases will increase with protests.
Illinois opens up community-based testing sites to all. Cases in the state are trending down to stable:
CNN reports we’re pacing over 100K new cases per day worldwide, and growing:
The US has officially crossed the 2M mark in cases (0.59% of the population):
Fears of a second wave (or extension of the first wave) of cases are making the stock market skittish, with the Dow and S&P 500 both losing roughly 5% in value so far today.
Illinois continues to trend down, currently running at a rate of 600-900 new cases per day:
473 new cases were reported today. Let’s keep this momentum. 🤞
Nationally, we have flatlined at around 20-25K new cases per day:
The FDA revoked emergency authorization to use two malaria drugs to treat COVID-19 promoted by the President.
It’s not looking good for the US as cases start to increase again:
Many believe this is the first wave of cases continuing to extend in areas that were less severely impacted early on and decided to either forego or pursue less restrictive preventative measures.
Illinois continues to see cases decline:
The big test will be to see how these case counts change as the state reopens.
The US is officially getting crushed. Yesterday we saw the highest number of new cases reported in a single day yet:
Complete failure of leadership at the federal level. Cases are currently rising in 29 states.
You can see how we compare to the rest of the world through the European CDC’s COVID-19 reporting tools.
New York Times with a nice, abridged look at the US:
A look at Illinois - cases have been unfortunately rising the past three days:
Digging a bit deeper, I thought I’d look at aggregate stats in Cook County (home of Chicago, where I live):
- Total population: 5.15M
- Total cases: 88,650 (1.72%, or 1 in 58)
- Total deaths: 4,500 (0.087%, or 1 in 1,145)
In my neighborhood, Lincoln Square, or zip code 60625:
- Total population: 78,651
- Total tested: 9,198 (11.6% of the population)
- Total cases: 1,496 (1.9%, or 1 in 52)
- Total deaths: N/A
I’m not sure why the deaths are not being reported on a zip code level. If we use the COVID-19 mortality rate of Cook County (0.087%) above, we can infer roughly 68 deaths in the neighborhood.
A look at case growth per week adjusted for population from the NYT:
China and South Korea’s line would look similar to Japan’s.
Here’s a look at death count per capita:
We’re bad at this.
A helpful tool to view and filter on time series data for the city of Chicago. For example, my neighborhood:
How Much Testing Do We Need? Great analysis from NPR on state by state testing. Two thirds of states are not doing enough testing, a big reason (coupled with reopening too early) as to why we’re seeing a resurgence in large parts of the country.
I thought it was helpful to see a case study view of a mitigation strategy in Tennesse:
Contrast this with a supression strategy in Italy:
The key difference is that cases are detected and isolated before they lead to outbreaks. Extremely logical.
FT video on impact of stay at home orders. Some notes:
- In April, daily global C02 emissions down 17% compared to same time last year
- Millions adapting to working at home. Investment in London office state market dropped by a 1/3
- Air quality has improved by 1/3 around prime London real estate
- Peak rush hour traffic in Chinese city Shenzhen is 10% higher than 2019 baseline