Tracking COVID-19 in the US, from March 2nd to July 23rd, 2020.

March 2

March 13

March 15

March 16

March 17

March 18

March 19

March 20

March 21

March 22

March 23

March 24

March 25

March 26

3.28 million people filed for unemployment in the last week

We’ll be ahead of China overnight

March 27

March 28

March 29

March 30

March 31

April 1

April 2

6.6M more unemployment claims filed last week

April 4

April 5

April 6

April 8

~12p

EOD

April 9

From https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/investigations/coronavirus-hospitals-data

6.6 million more people lost their jobs:

Unemployment Ranks Up by 6.6 Million as Coronavirus Hits Jobs - The New York Times

April 10

11:54 AM

10:55 PM

April 11

How the Virus Transformed the Way Americans Spend Their Money

April 14

April 15

Transit ridership down 78% in Chicago

Chicago’s COVID-19 Case Growth Slowing, New Data Show - WBEZ

April 16

Thursday

Coronavirus Live Updates: A Loans Program to Save Jobs Runs Dry; 22 Million Americans Have Filed for Unemployment - The New York Times

5.2 million workers added to unemployment tally

There’s nowhere to hide,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton in Chicago. “This is the deepest, fastest, most broad-based recession we’ve ever seen.

4:42 PM

April 17

Friday

Jobless claims soar by 5.25 million to push coronavirus-tied layoffs above 20 million - MarketWatch

The status of COVID-19 antivirals and vaccines https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-coronavirus-drug-vaccine-status

April 18

Saturday

9:03 AM

April 20

10:20 AM

9:49 PM

April 21

9:39 AM:

9:21 PM:

April 22

Illinois Coronavirus Map and Case Count - The New York Times

11:21 PM:

April 23

1:38 PM:

4.4 M more unemployment claims in the past week - 26.5M total

Unemployment Permeates the Economy During the Coronavirus Pandemic - The New York Times

Another look:

11:03 PM:

April 24

10:25 PM:

April 26

We’re quickly approaching 1M cases and 50K deaths in the US:

April 27

Rt is a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading.

Illinois is currently measuring R 0.89 - which makes me very happy as a Chicago resident:

More information on Rt can be found at rt.live.

11:07 PM:

We hit 50K deaths in the US today – a sad milestone.

April 28

Some trend headway in Illinois:

We broke one million cases in the US today:

1M Covid-19 Cases In The US On April 28, 2020

April 29

When Congress passed legislation mandating paid sick leave during the pandemic, it exempted 80% of American workers (the requirement does not apply to any business with more than 500 employees). Some lawmakers say their top priority in the next relief bill will be a liability shield for companies as states reopen, while others focus on worker protections.

April 30

60K deaths:

2020 04 30 Tracking Covid 19 Cases

New reported cases by day appear to be trending down while we’re seeing an uptick in reported deaths (given lag time):

2020 04 30 Tracking Covid 19 New Reported Cases By Day QkLOPJQq

3.8 million more unemployment claims in the last week (30.3M in total in the past six weeks):

2020 04 30 Tracking Covid 19 3.8M Unemployed YkpWCHr1

Interesting reads:

May 3

1.1M cases in the US:

2020-05-03 US Cases

Illinois trending:

2020-05-03 IL Cases

May 4

7-day moving average of new reported cases appears remains consistent:

2020-05-04 Daily Trend - US

Illinois continues to grow - though the number of people tested daily continues to grow:

2020-05-04 Daily Trend - Illinois

10K Americans reach 65 each day, and many are getting caught in the country’s broken retirement system. Notes:

  • Over 30M Americans have applied for unemployment benefits since the pandemic struck - many will lose their jobs permanently and retire earlier than planned.
  • 50% of Americans between the ages of 56-61 had less than $21,000 in retirement savings in 2016 - and not much has changed since (source).
  • 40% of Americans over the age of 60 who are no longer working full-time rely solely on Social Security for their income — with a median annual benefit of ~$17,000 (source).

May 6

1.2M cases in the US (0.3% of the population), 72K dead:

2020-05-06 Global Cases

Reads:

May 7

Illinois trends:

2020-05-07 IL Trends

Reads:

May 12

Some positive Illinois trends:

2020-05-12 IL trends

We also had our highest number of tests in 24-hours:

Today is a new high for cases (4,104) but also a new high for tests (29,266) says IDPH Director Dr. Ngozi Ezike.

via https://twitter.com/KristenThometz/status/1260308220658286594

May 13

Where people started leaving home again - a look at movement patterns using cellphone data:

2020-05-13 Where People Are Moving

On first glance, I thought this was an article on relocation trends – something I’m following as the pandemic continues to change how we all live.

May 14

Almost 3M U.S. workers filed for unemployment last week:

2020-05-14 US jobless claims

There has been a total of 36.5M claims since the pandemic started – or 23.4% of the estimated workforce (155.7M in 2018).

Currently at 1.4M cases and 85K deaths in the US:

2020-05-14 World Trends

Thankfully, the number of new cases has continued to trend down:

2020-05-14 US trends

May 17

Approaching 1.5M cases and 90K deaths in the US:

2020-05-17 global cases

A look at trends in Illinois:

2020-05-17 Illinois trending

2,088 new cases were reported yesterday.

A look at Chicago cases - the NYT notes the city’s status as flattening:

2020-05-17 Chicago Cases

Currently at 3.49 new cases per 1,000 people (or 1 in 286).

Your daily commute won’t ever be the same” - a good article from National Geographic

May 18

1.5M cases and 90K deaths:

2020-05-18 global trends

We’re seeing some week-over-week day of week improvements in Illinois:

2020-05-18 Illinois cases

May 19

A Congressional oversight committee released a report on the CARES Act’s s $500 Billion Emergency Economic Stabilization Funds. Highlights:

  • More than one quarter of the U.S. economy has been idled — a fall in output equivalent to what occurred between 1929 and 1933 during the Great Depression.
  • Over the eight weeks ending on May 9, 36.5 million Americans filed unemployment claims. When combined with the 7.1 million Americans already unemployed as of March 13, the total equals more than 40 million. Between people who are unemployed and underemployed, some experts estimate that the real unemployment rate is actually 22.8% or as high as 25%.
  • A Federal Reserve survey found that among people who were working in February, almost 40% of those in households making less than $40,000 a year had lost a job in March.
  • Of the $500 billion allocated, the Treasury Department has dispersed $37.5 billion to the Federal Reserve.

Elsewhere:

May 20

All 50 states have begun to reopen to some degree - many states require masks and for folks to social distance when gathering.

A prototype vaccine has protected monkeys from the virus. Small numbers (8 monkeys), but a great development nonetheless.

CDC releases guidance for reopening. A 60-page document that is similar to the draft version that was shelved by the White House, but with toned down guidance and section on ‘communities of faith’ removed.

June 2

A look at US aggregate trends:

2020-06-02 US COVID-19 trends

New cases slowly declining.

Zooming in on Illinois, we are thankfully seeing a sharp decline in new cases:

2020-06-02 Illinois trends

Mayors, public health experts and other officials worry that the risk of new coronavirus cases will increase with protests.

June 4

Illinois opens up community-based testing sites to all. Cases in the state are trending down to stable:

2020-06-04 Illinois trends

June 6

CNN reports we’re pacing over 100K new cases per day worldwide, and growing:

2020-06-06 Worldwide Trends

June 11

The US has officially crossed the 2M mark in cases (0.59% of the population):

2020-06-11 Worldwide Trends

Fears of a second wave (or extension of the first wave) of cases are making the stock market skittish, with the Dow and S&P 500 both losing roughly 5% in value so far today.

June 15

Illinois continues to trend down, currently running at a rate of 600-900 new cases per day:

2020-06-15 Illinois Cases

473 new cases were reported today. Let’s keep this momentum. 🤞

Nationally, we have flatlined at around 20-25K new cases per day:

2020-06-15 US Trends

The FDA revoked emergency authorization to use two malaria drugs to treat COVID-19 promoted by the President.

June 19

It’s not looking good for the US as cases start to increase again:

2020-06-19 US Trending

Many believe this is the first wave of cases continuing to extend in areas that were less severely impacted early on and decided to either forego or pursue less restrictive preventative measures.

Illinois continues to see cases decline:

2020-06-19 Illinois Cases

The big test will be to see how these case counts change as the state reopens.

June 25

The US is officially getting crushed. Yesterday we saw the highest number of new cases reported in a single day yet:

2020-06-25 US trending

Complete failure of leadership at the federal level. Cases are currently rising in 29 states.

You can see how we compare to the rest of the world through the European CDC’s COVID-19 reporting tools.

June 26

New York Times with a nice, abridged look at the US:

2020-06-26 US Rollup

A look at Illinois - cases have been unfortunately rising the past three days:

2020-06-26 IL Cases

Digging a bit deeper, I thought I’d look at aggregate stats in Cook County (home of Chicago, where I live):

  • Total population: 5.15M
  • Total cases: 88,650 (1.72%, or 1 in 58)
  • Total deaths: 4,500 (0.087%, or 1 in 1,145)

In my neighborhood, Lincoln Square, or zip code 60625:

  • Total population: 78,651
  • Total tested: 9,198 (11.6% of the population)
  • Total cases: 1,496 (1.9%, or 1 in 52)
  • Total deaths: N/A

I’m not sure why the deaths are not being reported on a zip code level. If we use the COVID-19 mortality rate of Cook County (0.087%) above, we can infer roughly 68 deaths in the neighborhood.

June 29

A look at case growth per week adjusted for population from the NYT:

2020-06-29 Case Growth Per Capita

China and South Korea’s line would look similar to Japan’s.

Here’s a look at death count per capita:

2020-06-29 Covid19 Deaths Per Capita

We’re bad at this.

June 30

A helpful tool to view and filter on time series data for the city of Chicago. For example, my neighborhood:

2020-06-30 60625 COVID-19 Dashboard

How Much Testing Do We Need? Great analysis from NPR on state by state testing. Two thirds of states are not doing enough testing, a big reason (coupled with reopening too early) as to why we’re seeing a resurgence in large parts of the country.

I thought it was helpful to see a case study view of a mitigation strategy in Tennesse:

2020-06-30 Mitigation Case Study

Contrast this with a supression strategy in Italy:

2020-06-30 Suppression Case Study

The key difference is that cases are detected and isolated before they lead to outbreaks. Extremely logical.

July 3

FT video on impact of stay at home orders. Some notes:

  • In April, daily global C02 emissions down 17% compared to same time last year
  • Millions adapting to working at home. Investment in London office state market dropped by a 1/3
  • Air quality has improved by 1/3 around prime London real estate
  • Peak rush hour traffic in Chinese city Shenzhen is 10% higher than 2019 baseline

July 10

Is Your State Doing Enough Coronavirus Testing? - 12 US states are meeting their target, 5 are near their target, and 34 states are below their target. I’m proud of Illinois.

July 14

We blew past 3M cases a few days ago and are approaching 3.4M in total:

2020-07-14 Global COVID-19 Case Trending

Scrolling up, I notice we crossed the 2M case mark roughly 30 days ago. It’s hard to see where this ends. Everyone needs to listen to medical experts and do the part. We are all in this together.

5.4 million people lost health insurance after losing their jobs.

July 23

We crossed the 4M mark today:

2020-07-23 Worldwide Cases

On a per capita basis, we are the nation with the seventh highest amount of cases over the last 7 days, wedged between South Africa and Israel:

2020-07-23 Worldwide Per Capita Cases

It’s getting harder to log these updates given the case counts in the US are so grim.